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Beijing is Setting the Stage for Trouble in the South China Sea

By Mark J. Valencia
International Herald Tribune

3 July 2000

HONOLULU - A recent report by the U.S. Defense Department concluded that a sea-based component will be critical to the success of both the national and the theater defense systems that the

U.S.

is considering building to defend itself and its allies, including those in the Asia-Pacific region, from ballistic missile attack.

Missles launched from sea-based systems could avoid being misled by decoys by destroying an enemy missile in its boost phase, shortly after liftoff. But to do so the surface ships and submarines carrying the anti-ballistic missiles would have to be rather close to the launch site.

This may help to explain the U.S. Navy's growing concern with freedom of navigation issues in the South China Sea. Washington's policy has evolved from active neutrality to active concern. Active involvement is likely to be the next step, resulting in a serious new source of tension with

China

.

Official Chinese maps include a territorial boundary claim that encloses much of the South China Sea. In response to repeated U.S. inquiries about its policy, Beijing has stated that it will not interfere with freedom of navigation. But it will not clarify exactly what it claims in the South China Sea and why.

What concerns U.S. naval strategists is that some of China's actions - such as its claim to part of Vietnam's continental shelf and its occupation of Mischief Reef in waters claimed by the

Philippines

- indicate that it is asserting sovereignty over virtually the entire sea as ''historic waters.'' Freedom of navigation and overflight principles do not apply in historic waters.

Moreover, China has drawn enclosing baselines around the Paracel Islands in the northern part of the sea, thus removing the enclosed waters from the freedom of navigation regime. It has indicated that it may do the same with the Spratly Islands to the south, which it contests with Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and

Brunei

.

Setting an ominous precedent, China banned planes at certain heights from October 1979 to February 1980 over four ''danger'' zones south and east of Hainan island. This forced the temporary closure of a major commercial air corridor. Hainan is the one piece of uncontested territory that China has in the South China Sea.

China

has declared 12-nautical-mile territorial seas around the enclosing baselines of the Paracel Islands. It insists that foreign warships cannot enter these waters without permission. Thus Beijing could be intent on transferring large areas of the South China Sea from a regime in which warships have immunity from its jurisdiction to one in which permission is required for entry. Of course,

China

cannot now enforce such a regime; but when it is strong enough, it may try to do so. The

United States

will not acquiesce. It will protest in word and probably in deed by having its naval ships ignore anything that it considers a violation of international laws governing freedom of navigation.

The potential for conflict in the South China Sea also concerns Japan and

South Korea

. They depend on free and safe navigation for much of their oil and other trade.

China

's military strategy seems to be to based on modernizing its naval, air and amphibious forces. It wants to be able to pose a credible risk to the U.S. Navy in case Washington backs

Taiwan

in a conflict. But Beijing is also taking steps to give military backing to its claims in the South China Sea. This involves an increased Chinese presence and capability in the area. For example, in April China successfully carried out midflight refueling of fighter jets, thus expanding its ability to project power.

Indicating growing American concern at the last annual meeting in July of ministers from the ASEAN Regional Forum on security, Secretary of State Madeline Abright warned that the stakes were ''too high to permit a cycle to emerge in which each incident leads to another with potentially greater crisis and graver consequences.'' The

United States

, she added, ''cannot simply sit on the sidelines and watch.''

The writer, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, contributed this comment to the Herald Tribune.

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