By John Chan
World Socialist Website
22 September 2008
Relations between Vietnam and China deteriorated over the past fortnight
after Hanoi formally protested at online discussions in China about a war with
Vietnam. While only a small layer of Chinese nationalist fanatics made the web
postings, the incident underscores the ongoing tensions between the two
countries, which have conflicting strategic and economic interests, including in
the South China Sea.
According to the South China Morning Post on September 5, Hanoi has
twice summoned senior Chinese diplomats to express concerns about the “war
plans” that have been appearing on Chinese web sites since August. The plans
supposedly outline a full-scale invasion of Vietnam, starting with five days of
missile strikes. Following a naval blockade and electronic jamming of Vietnam’s
communications, 310,000 Chinese troops would sweep into northern Vietnam from
the Chinese provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi and from the South China Sea.
The postings were made on Sina.com, a major news portal in China, and
several other sites. One declared: “Vietnam... is a major threat to the safety
of Chinese territories, and the biggest obstacle to the peaceful emergence of
China... Vietnam is the strategic hub of the whole of Southeast Asia. Vietnam
has to be conquered first if Southeast Asia is to be under [China’s] control
again.”
While these ultra nationalists have no direct influence in Beijing’s
policy-making, the fact that such debates were published without any
interference from China’s notorious Internet police indicated a degree of
official approval. Beijing has been consciously promoting nationalism to create
a new base of support among China’s emerging middle classes, which view their
future as bound up with the rise of China as a major power.
Beijing and Hanoi moved quickly to dampen down the dispute. Le Dung,
Vietnam’s foreign ministry spokesman, announced that China had promised to block
“negative articles” that were harmful to bilateral relations between the two
countries. A Chinese government spokesman said the postings were the individual
opinions of a handful of people, “which by no means represented China’s
stance”.
Speaking to the South China Morning Post, Song Xiaojun, a Chinese
military expert, dismissed the “war plans” as a “joke”. However, while calling
on the Chinese government to guide public opinion so as to avoid harmful
conspiracy theories, Song admitted that tensions with Vietnam existed. “China
and Vietnam have similar political systems and should unite to counter the US,
which is the common enemy for both countries. Clearly the US tries to play
Vietnam off against rising China,” he said.
Song’s comments reflect broader concerns in official circles that the US is
developing ties with Vietnam, as part of its strategic encirclement of China.
Tensions have been rising over the Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South
China Sea. In July, Beijing protested an agreement signed by Hanoi with US oil
giant Exxon Mobil to develop oil and gas reserves in disputed maritime areas of
the South China Sea. Last year the Vietnamese foreign ministry declared
sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, following by invitations to Western and
Asian oil corporations to bid for gas field and pipeline projects.
Like Beijing, Hanoi has been encouraging patriotism. Hundreds of Vietnamese
students staged anti-Chinese protests last December after Beijing officially
incorporated the Spratly and Paracel Islands into the Chinese province of
Hainan. The protesters demanded that Hanoi stand up to “Chinese aggression”.
History of bitterness
The history of relations between the two Stalinist regimes has been one of
considerable bitterness.
Until the early 1960s, the Chinese and Vietnamese Communist Parties were
formally within the Soviet bloc. However, like Moscow, Beijing treated the
anti-colonial struggle in Vietnam as a pawn in their dealings with the
imperialist powers, forcing Ho Chi Minh to accept the French-proposed partition
of Vietnam in 1953. The deal paved the way for the US to displace France in
propping up a corrupt South Vietnamese dictatorship, which ultimately led to
direct US military intervention in 1965 and the death of millions of
Vietnamese.
In the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, North Vietnam sided with Moscow,
angering Beijing. Sharpening tensions with the Soviet Union, as well as economic
problems at home, led to Mao Zedong’s rapprochement with the US in 1972. For the
Nixon administration, a major factor in reaching the deal was to secure China’s
support in containing the fallout in Asia from the defeat of the US military in
Vietnam.
In February 1979, the Chinese regime launched war on Vietnam in response to
its toppling of the pro-Beijing Pol Pot regime in Cambodia. More than 200,000
Chinese troops invaded northern Vietnam, leading to bitter fighting in which
tens of thousands of soldiers and even more Vietnamese civilians died. Beijing
launched the war just two months after Deng Xiaoping initiated his “market
reforms” and just weeks after he visited Washington.
The scorched earth policy that accompanied the withdrawal of Chinese troops
only compounded the acrimony between the two countries. Fear of a Chinese
invasion is a major reason why Vietnam continues to maintain one of the largest
standing armies in the world. Border skirmishes continued into the 1980s but
subsided after Hanoi’s turn to market reform and the collapse of the Soviet
Union.
In 1989, Hanoi was one of the few governments in the world to publicly back
Beijing’s massacre of protestors in Tiananmen Square, out of fear that
Vietnamese workers and students would follow the example. Relations between the
two countries were normalised in 1991.
While bilateral trade between the two countries is booming, tensions have
remained. Now that China has emerged as a new economic power, sections of the
ruling elite in Beijing view Vietnam’s continued control of the Spratly Islands
as a strategic obstacle. In January, China’s leading defence magazine,
Ordnance Knowledge, which has close connections with the military, blamed
the lack of a true Chinese “deep water” navy for the unresolved disputes in the
South China Sea.
China controls 7 islets in the Spratly group, while Vietnam has the largest
group of 29, with some 2,000 troops stationed to protect them. The Philippines
controls 8 islands, Malaysia 5 and Taiwan 1. Brunei and Indonesia both have
maritime claims in the area as well.
Rivalry in the South China Sea goes back decades. In 1974, China took the
advantage of the imminent collapse of the South Vietnamese regime to occupy the
Paracel Islands. In 1988, the Chinese and Vietnamese navies clashed after China
took over the Johnson Reef in the Spratly archipelago. Vietnam has countered
China through its membership of the Association of South East Asian Nations
(ASEAN), which in 1995 ruled out bilateral negotiations in favour of a
collective response to Beijing over disputes in the South China Sea.
Relations between Beijing and Hanoi have improved in recent years, as China
has sought closer ties with ASEAN countries through free trade agreements and
joint economic zones. In 2002, Beijing signed a deal with the ASEAN, agreeing
not to complicate conflict in the region, including the South China Sea.
Deep suspicion remains, however. Ordnance Knowledge accused Vietnam,
Malaysia and other countries of holding military exercises and purchasing new
hardware such as frigates, fighters and patrol boats to strengthen their grip
over the islets. China is also concerned about US influence following its
normalisation of relations with Vietnam in 1995. Washington has been sending
warships to visit Vietnam since 2003, raising fears in Beijing that the US is
seeking closer military ties as part of its broader plans to encircle China.
Substantial economic and strategic interests are at stake in the South China
Sea. More than 500 oil and gas wells have been developed by Vietnam, Malaysia,
Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei around the Spratlys, including some 100 within
waters claimed by China. Total annual output has reached 50 million tonnes and
oil exports have become an important source of revenue for both Vietnam and
Philippines. The South China Sea is estimated to have 35 billion tonnes of oil
and natural gas, of which 22.5 billion tonnes are within Chinese-claimed
areas.
Just as significantly, some of the world’s most important naval
routes—especially from the Middle East to North East Asia—pass through the South
China Sea. Ordnance Knowledge pointed out that the Spratly Islands are at
the heart of China’s foreign trade and oil “lifelines”. Of China’s 39 sea lanes,
the 21 passing through the Spratlys account for 60 percent of China’s foreign
trade. Some 60 percent of ships passing through the Strait of Malacca are
Chinese, accounting for 80 percent of China’s imported oil from the Middle East
and Africa.
The magazine wrote: “As foreign trade and the sea-base economy develop, our
national interests are rapidly expanding towards overseas. The navy, which bears
the major responsibility of protecting maritime and overseas interests, must
ensure smooth and efficient passages... Effectively controlling the Spratlys
will be an important basis for our navy to break through the constraints of the
island chains, moving east to the Pacific and west to the Indian Ocean.”
Ordnance Knowledge also viewed the islands as a weapon against
potential rivals such as Japan. “Effective control of the Spratlys and the
surrounding areas can enhance [China’s] deterrent power, taking the strategic
initiative by directly constraining and influencing international oil lifelines.
It can be a sharp blade to directly threaten hostile forces, further deterring
the presence of the Western powers around the South China Sea,” the magazine
wrote.
Several Western analysts noted in April that China was building a major naval
base on the southern island of Hainan, adjacent to the South China Sea, that
would allow for a large fleet, including 20 submarines and, in the future, an
aircraft carrier or amphibious battle groups. In protecting its own trade routes
and oil supplies, China is inevitably threatening those of its rivals.
While the “plans” of the Chinese bloggers to invade Vietnam may not be very
serious or influential, disputes over control of the South China Sea and other
tensions have the potential to trigger a conflict that could quickly draw in
neighbouring countries and the major powers.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/sep2008/viet-s22.shtml
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I hope vietnam would build up its forces so in the future it would have a showdown with CHina militarily. Hope it can spend more money to upgrade its military, acquiring more from Russia.
fighter planes and submarines.
It would be alot of interesting than online activitists trying to defend its country by just talking. You know talk is cheap. I despise them like the lowly tibetans, all they do is talk and take to the streets.